Disequilibrium Model for Stumpage Price Analysis

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Abstract:

An econometric model that accounts for competitive and disequilibrium market forces shows promise for estimating stumpage prices. Lagged agricultural wages, lagged cottonwood stumpage prices, and inventory and profit levels in the cottonwood lumber market comprise the 3-equation empirical model. Quarterly stumpage prices for cottonwood in Louisiana were predicted satisfactorily for the period of fit, 1956 through 1965, and for 5 years beyond, 1966 to 1970. Of particular value in this case was the ability of the model to predict solely from secondary data sources. Forest Sci. 17:246-251.

Keywords: Markets; costs and returns

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Assoc. Economist, Southern Forest Exp. Sta., USDA Forest Service, New Orleans, La.

Publication date: June 1, 1971

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  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
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