Is Ethnoreligious Conflict a Contagious Disease?

The spread of conflict across borders (contagion) is a modern phenomenon of increasing importance. This study focuses on the extent to which cross-border religious ties facilitate contagion of ethnic conflict using data from the Minorities at Risk dataset. The findings show that religious contagion influences the extent of both ethnic protest and rebellion whereas nonreligious contagion influences only ethnic protest. They also show that only violent conflict, as opposed to peaceful mass-political movements, in one state influences conflict in a bordering state. One possible explanation for this is the argument that violence is an intrinsic element of religion. This can explain why religious contagion is stronger than nonreligious contagion and why religious conflicts cross borders only when they are violent ones. This argument is also consistent with previous findings on domestic conflict that show that although religious grievances expressed by an ethnic minority were a contributing factor to the level of rebellion in which that minority engages, they had a negative influence on the extent of peaceful protest.­