The Impact of News Media Favorability and Candidate Events in Presidential Campaigns

In this: publication
By this: publisher
In this Subject: Political Science
By this author: Shaw D. R.

Author: Shaw D. R.

Source: Political Communication, Volume 16, Number 2, 1 April 1999 , pp. 183-202(20)

Publisher: Routledge, part of the Taylor & Francis Group

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Abstract:

Although campaigns are the most obvious means by which American voters receive information about candidates and issues, there is strong resistance to the notion that they influence presidential elections. Recent analyses, however, argue that campaign events can produce statistically significant alterations in the aggregate distribution of voters' preferences. This study examines presidential campaign effects in the 1992 and 1996 U.S. elections and features three departures from previous studies: (a) a clearer understanding of campaigning and candidate events, facilitating a more precise idea of what is being tested; (b) detailed data on television and newspaper coverage of the campaign, allowing the measurement of news media effects; and (c) time series data on candidate support that have been purged of undesirable statistical properties. The main hypothesis is that the interaction between events and the favorability of news media coverage drives much of the change in voters' preferences. The data show that these interactive effects were often significant, especially the favorability of television coverage. They further suggest, however, that other factors also influenced voters, including, most probably, other types of media effects.

Keywords: CAMPAIGNS; CAMPAIGN; EVENTS; CANDIDATES; ELECTIONS; NEWSPAPERS; TELEVISION; TIME; SERIES; VOTERS; VOTING