The Complexity of Compellence: Revisiting the Causal Logic of Denial

Robert A. Pape's denial theory forms the best corroborated theory to guide coercive strategy. Denial theory, however, provides a fundamentally flawed causal model because it neglects the complexity of the causal dynamics of compellence on two accounts: it fails to address strategic interaction between opponents and it seeks to provide a univariate explanation for a multicausal phenomenon. To address these two weaknesses, a new theory of grand strategic denial is developed. The implication of this new theory is that it is the target's grand strategy that must be undermined, not its military strategy per se.