IngentaConnect The New Calculus of Pre-emption

Author: R.S. Litwak¹

Source: Survival, Volume 44, Number 4, 2002 , pp. 53-79(27)

Publisher: Routledge, part of the Taylor & Francis Group

Abstract:

Under the Bush administration's 2002 National Security Strategy document, military pre-emption against ‘rogue states’ and terrorist groups has been elevated to official doctrine. But the conditions under which pre-emption would be undertaken remain unclear. Military action against terrorist groups, such as al-Qaeda, enjoys broad international legitimacy, but that consensus breaks down over the use of force against a state violating non-proliferation norms. A comparative analysis of historical cases reveals force to be as problematic as its non-military alternatives. Inadequate intelligence, concern over collateral damage to civilian populations and the fear of triggering a broader conflict have been major constraints on the use of force to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In the post-11 September era, pre-emption should be a rarely invoked policy option, and successful prevention strategies, employing non-military instruments, might forestall the need to resort to it.

Document Type: Original article

Affiliations: 1: Robert S. Litwak is Director of International Studies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, within the Smithsonian Institution in Washington.

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