Forecasting Housing Supply: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Market
This paper compares the performance of three alternative models in forecasting housing supply in the Irish Republic. The results highlight key behavioural issues in the dynamics of housing supply that the OLS and VAR models fail to adequately capture due to the inclusion of fundamental variables in their specification. The behaviour of developers in delaying projects means that housing supply can often respond slowly to demand shocks. For this reason the OLS and VAR models substantially over-estimate housing supply during the period 1998-2001. In comparison the simple ARIMA model provides generally accurate forecasts of supply.
Keywords: Housing supply; Republic of Ireland; forecasting accuracy
Document Type: Research Article
Affiliations: 1: Cass Business School, City University, 2: Department of Property, University of Auckland,
Publication date: 01 March 2007
- Editorial Board
- Subscribe to this Title
- Ingenta Connect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites
- Access Key
- Free content
- Partial Free content
- New content
- Open access content
- Partial Open access content
- Subscribed content
- Partial Subscribed content
- Free trial content