Authors: Numberger, Siegfried; Rennhak, Carsten

Source: Electronic Markets, Volume 15, Number 3, 01Aug2005 , pp. 269-282(14)

Publisher: Routledge, part of the Taylor & Francis Group

Abstract:

Condensing the understanding of Business-to-Consumer (B2C) e-commerce and its causal relations with the environment in a set of future meaningful, specific and exhaustive variables is a prerequisite for long-term forecasting. There is no consensus regarding even present quantitative estimates of e-commerce, nor does current research pinpoint immediate cause or effect. In around 50 semi-structured interviews with cross-functional e-commerce practitioners, academics, users and non-users, 14 variables describing the future structure of e-commerce and 35 environment variables have been identified. The understanding of e-commerce is focusing on the terms ‘automation' and ‘spatial separated delivery', leading to a differentiation between distance selling e-commerce and automated transactions at retail outlets. The environments investigated include Society, Distribution, Technology, Retail Outlets, Socio-Politics and Market environments, providing a holistic view on the long-term outlook of e-commerce.

Keywords: e-commerce; Habermas; theory of societal evolution; foresight; theory of communicative action; e-commerce framework

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10196780500209077

Publication date: 2005-08-01

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