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The causes of the long stagnation in Japan

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The paper investigates whether the Japanese bank lending causes the long stagnation in the 1990s and if so whether this effect on the growth is more persistent than in the 1980s. Applying a VAR model for the annual prefecture panel data, the former can be verified by Granger causality test and the latter by impulse response function. There exists only one way causality from the loan to the GDP in the slump periods, while two way causalities exist in the 1980s. The shock in the loan equation is less persistent than the shock in GDP in the 1980s, but the persistence is reversed in the 1990s.

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: 1: Institute of Policy and Planning Sciences University of Tsukuba Tsukuba Ibaraki 305-8573 Japan 2: Tohoku University Japan

Publication date: January 15, 2004

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