Nonlinear vs. nonstationary of hysteresis in unemployment: evidence from OECD economies

Authors: Lin, Cheng-Hsun¹; Kuo, Nai-Fong²; Yuan, Cheng-Da³

Source: Applied Economics Letters, Volume 15, Number 11, September 2008 , pp. 905-909(5)

Publisher: Routledge, part of the Taylor & Francis Group

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Abstract:

This study examines the lower and higher boundaries for the threshold value to be considered an indicator of unemployment in a specific country. Specially, the objective is to conduct the critical moment of hysteresis effects happening in unemployment rate using a group of 16 OECD countries. The methodological strategy applies a developed tool of threshold tests involving unit root against stationary but nonlinear alternative by Caner and Hansen (2001). A significant contribution of this study is identifying a trigger point from the nonstationary of time series process for the first time in the literature. Our empirical results finds strong evidence of the existence of nonlinear stationary in Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Netherlands and the USA when the threshold effect holds. The hysteresis hypothesis is further confirmed by the fact that the unemployment rate exceeds the boundaries of the band, for Australia, Finland, France, Germany, Japan and the USA when the threshold unit root test of Caner and Hansen is rigorously implemented.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504850600949145

Affiliations: 1: Institute of Business and Management, National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan, R.O.C 2: Department of Finance, Shih Hsin University, Taiwan, R.O.C 3: Department and Graduate Institute of International Business, National Taiwan University, Taiwan, R.O.C

Publication date: 2008-09-01

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