Housing price variability: national and local impacts

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Abstract:

This article examines the influence of national and local forces on housing prices in 20 local US real estate markets during the recent housing price run-up and decline. We use reduced-form panel data fixed-effects models with robust SEs to determine the impact of national and local effects on housing prices in 20 US cities across time. A national home price index and mortgage rate are used to measure national impacts on the local markets. A mix of socio-economic variables estimates local impacts. We find no results indicating that national trends lack relevance in local markets; however, we find wide support for the additional inclusion of local socio-economic factors in all markets. The findings are consistent with an environment in which national polices and trends influence all markets; however local policymakers and investors can continue to expect geographic differences in market outcomes.

Keywords: R21; R31; housing markets; housing markets US; housing price index; local housing prices

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.929628

Affiliations: 1: College of Public Affairs, University of Baltimore, Baltimore, MD, 21201, USA 2: Merrick School of Business, University of Baltimore, Baltimore, MD, 21201, USA

Publication date: October 2, 2014

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