An empirical investigation into the impact of US federal government budget deficits on the real interest rate yield on intermediate-term treasury issues, 1972–2012

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Abstract:

This study provides new empirical evidence on the impact of the federal budget deficit on the real interest rate yields on intermediate-term debt issues of the US Treasury, represented herein by the ex post real interest rate yields on 3-year Treasury notes and 7-year Treasury notes, two interest rate measures that have received essentially no attention in the economics and finance literature in recent years. This study is couched within a loanable funds model that includes two ex post real interest rate yields, the monetary base as a per cent of GDP, the change in per capita real GDP, net financial capital inflows as a per cent of GDP and the budget deficit as a per cent of GDP. This study uses annual data for the study period 1972 to 2012, a time period that includes ‘quantitative easing’ monetary policies by the Federal Reserve. Two-stage least squares estimations reveal that the federal budget deficit, expressed as a per cent of GDP, exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the ex post real interest rate yields on both 3-year and 7-year Treasury notes, even after allowing for quantitative easing and other factors. The study also considers the time period 1980 to 2012 and offers simple robustness testing.

Keywords: 3-year Treasury notes; 7-year Treasury notes; E43; E52; E62; H62; budget deficit; ex post real interest rate yield; loanable funds model

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.932050

Affiliations: Department of Accounting and Finance, Jacksonville University, Jacksonville, FL, 32211, USA

Publication date: October 2, 2014

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