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Univariate unobserved-component model with a nonrandom-walk permanent component

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Abstract:

In this article, we revisit the univariate unobserved-component (UC) model of the US GDP by relaxing the traditional random-walk assumption of the permanent component. Since our general UC model is unidentified, we investigate the upper bound of the contribution of the transitory component, and find the GDP fluctuation is dominated by the permanent component.

Keywords: C22; C49; E32; permanent and transitory shocks; random-walk assumption; unobserved-component model

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2013.799756

Affiliations: Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Publication date: November 1, 2013

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