Based on the approach developed by Elliott et al. (2005), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price
of oil tended to be larger than the loss they incurred when their forecast fell short of the price of oil. Accounting for the asymmetry of the loss function does not necessarily make forecasts look rational.
No Reference information available - sign in for access.
No Citation information available - sign in for access.
No Supplementary Data.
No Article Media
oil price; forecasting;
rationality of forecasts
Document Type: Research Article
Department of Economics,Helmut-Schmidt-University, Holstenhofweg 85, PO Box 70082222008 Hamburg, Germany
Department of Economics,WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 256179 Vallendar, Germany
Department of Business and Economics,University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 555230 Odense M, Denmark
Publication date: 2013-06-01
More about this publication?