Skip to main content

Stock returns and economic growth

Buy Article:

$55.00 plus tax (Refund Policy)

Abstract:

Theoretical considerations appear to support the conjecture that stock returns are positively related to growth in the long run. However, the empirical literature does not give unanimous support to the theory. Based on a stochastic general equilibrium model it is argued that the long-run relationship between stock returns and per capita income growth is ambiguous and depends on output volatility. Using a century of data for 20 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries it is shown that the relationship between stock returns and growth is positive over the period 1916–1951, in which output volatility was persistent. Outside this period no relationship between stock returns and growth is found. These findings are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model.

Keywords: G00; O16; O40; asset returns; finance; growth; stock returns

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.613802

Affiliations: Department of Economics,Monash University, 100 Clyde RoadBerwick,Victoria 3806, Australia

Publication date: 2013-04-01

More about this publication?
  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more