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Decomposition of new venture growth into firm age, survey period and vintage effects

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Firm data are accumulated on a yearly basis. In view of the linear relationship of firm age + foundation year = survey year, the fluctuations of firm data classified by age and period cannot be decomposed into age, period and cohort (foundation year) effects. Three decomposition methods are briefly reviewed and applied to Japanese data on new ventures founded since 1995. Regarding sales and employment growth, the age effect is the largest with a downward trend, and the cohort effect is negligible. Regarding labour productivity, the age effect indicates upward movements, and the cohort effect is negligible. The reason of the negligible cohort effect is discussed.

Keywords: Bayesian cohort model; C11; L25; M13; Monte Carlo simulation; age–period–cohort decomposition; identification problem; new venture growth

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: Faculty of Commerce,Chuo University, 742-1 HigashinakanoHachiojiTokyo 192-0393, Japan

Publication date: January 1, 2013

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