Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club's share price

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Abstract:

This article considers the impact of match results on the stock returns of English football clubs. We propose that the magnitude of the response to a given result depends on the importance of the game, which is measured in two ways. First, we consider the extent to which the clubs are close rivals vying for similar league positions, as winning such games is particularly significant. Second, we argue that each individual game becomes more important for those clubs likely to be promoted or relegated as the season draws to a close, since a given match will have increasing information content concerning the final league position of the club. Using a fairly large panel comprising data for 19 clubs, we find some support for the notion that stock prices are affected more by the results of important matches than matches of lesser importance. We also observe that the difference between the number of points the club secures from a given match, and the number it was expected to secure, affects its stock price, as does the number of goals that the club under question scores in the match, relative to its competitor.

Keywords: G14; efficient markets hypothesis; football results; soccer clubs; stock returns

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.577017

Affiliations: ICMA Centre, University of Reading, Whiteknights, PO Box 242Reading RG6 6BA, UK

Publication date: September 1, 2012

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