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Modelling regional house prices

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Abstract:

We develop a panel model for regional house prices, for which both the cross-section and the time series dimension is large. The model allows for stochastic trends, cointegration, cross-equation correlations and, most importantly, latent-class clustering of regions. Class membership is fully data-driven and based on the average growth rates of house prices, and the relationship of house prices with economic growth. We apply the model to quarterly data for the Netherlands. The results suggest that there is convincing evidence for the existence of two distinct clusters of regions with pronounced differences in house price dynamics.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840903085089

Affiliations: Econometric Institute,Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Publication date: July 1, 2011

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