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The volatility of Australian traded goods' prices

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It is generally accepted that the Australian economy is continually subject to unanticipated shocks, particularly, unexpected swings in the prices of Australia's internationally- traded goods. This article empirically investigates the nature and extent of volatility in import and export prices faced by the Australian production sector. It estimates multivariate GARCH models of the stochastic processes generating the prices of imports and exports, and of important components of exports and imports. This article proposes an index of volatility, which is used to provide a summary measure of the extent of volatility in a multivariate context. The overall conclusion is that the price growth rates for Australia's traded goods exhibit considerable time variation in volatility and that these price growth rates are highly and positively correlated with each other.
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Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: 1: School of Economics, Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales, NSW 2052, Australia 2: BIS Shrapnel, Sydney, Australia

Publication date: 2010-12-01

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