Skip to main content

Predictive ability of asymmetric volatility models at medium-term horizons

Buy Article:

$47.00 plus tax (Refund Policy)

Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare forecasts of volatility from linear GARCH models with asymmetric ones. We consider horizons extending to 30 days. Forecasts are compared using three different evaluation tests. With data from an equity index and two foreign exchange returns, we show that asymmetric models provide statistically significant forecast improvements upon the GARCH model for two of the datasets and improve forecasts for all datasets by means of forecasts combinations. These results extend to about 10 days in the future, beyond which the forecasts are statistically inseparable from each other.
No Reference information available - sign in for access.
No Citation information available - sign in for access.
No Supplementary Data.
No Data/Media
No Metrics

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431, USA

Publication date: 2010-12-01

More about this publication?
  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more