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Econometric analysis of bank lending and business cycles in South Africa

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This article examines econometric relationships between bank lending and business cycle in South Africa. Two long-run economic relationships are hypothesized between total credit and the variables, namely, coincidental indicators, spread between lending and borrowing rates, money supply, stock price index, inflation and banking sector specific factors included in the model. Of these variables, only coincident indicators, changes in money supply as well as capital, and reserve are found to exert some influence on short-run total credit availability.

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: 1: Department of Economics, University of South Africa, UNISA 0003, Pretoria, South Africa 2: Department of Finance, Risk Management and Banking, University of South Africa, UNISA 0003, Pretoria, South Africa

Publication date: 2010-12-01

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