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The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms

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In this article, we analyse stylized facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55 000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period, e.g. whether a firm that has witnessed a high growth rate is likely to stay in a regime of high growth or is bound to switch to a regime of low growth in the subsequent period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position.

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: 1: Economics Department, University of Applied Sciences Merseburg, Merseburg, D-06217, Germany 2: DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin, Germany

Publication date: December 1, 2010

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