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Inflation and other aggregate determinants of the trend in US divorce rates since the 1960s

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This article extends empirical research on the determinants of divorce in two ways. First, I examine the effect of inflation on divorce. Second, the use of a structural time-series modelling approach attributes unobservables and omitted variables to an unobserved component, which allows for the model's parameters to be estimated consistently. Inflation is statistically significant, positive and persistent. I show that the effects of inflation are robust to the inclusion of additional explanatory variables and various trend specifications. The long-run implications of inflation are also substantial. I conclude that price stability has the potential to reduce divorce rates.

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: Department of Economics and Finance, Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN, USA

Publication date: 2010-10-01

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