The effects of inflation uncertainty on interest rates: a nonlinear approach

$51.63 plus tax (Refund Policy)

Buy Article:

Abstract:

In this article, we investigate the effects of inflation variability on short-term interest rates within a nonlinear smooth transition regression framework. The test results suggest that only the conditional mean of the inflation is a nonlinear process whereas the conditional variance is time variant but linear. Using the square root of conditional variance as a proxy for inflation risk, we estimate Fisher equation augmented with inflation risk. Although the estimated Fisher equations suggest that inflation risk reduces short-term interest rates, we find that the effects of inflation risk on interest rates are regime-dependent. Particularly, we find that the negative effects of inflation variability on nominal rates are greater in low-inflationary regimes when compared to high-inflationary regimes. On the other hand, it is found that both inflation and inflation uncertainty raise the expected inflation effect.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840801964757

Affiliations: 1: Department of Economics, Cankaya University, Ankara, Turkey 2: Department of Economics, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey

Publication date: September 1, 2010

More about this publication?
Related content

Share Content

Access Key

Free Content
Free content
New Content
New content
Open Access Content
Open access content
Subscribed Content
Subscribed content
Free Trial Content
Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
ingentaconnect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more