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Is growth exogenous? Evidence from the 1970s and 1980s

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Abstract:

This article assesses the role of external and policy factors for growth variability. The mean group estimator is used to estimate a vector autoregressive system on a panel data set of eighteen developing economies from 1965 to 1992. The main findings are that (i) temporary external shocks are an important determinant of medium to long-run growth variability (ii) high inflation countries are more vulnerable to external shocks than others. This evidence is supportive of the conventional view that macro-economic stability is conducive to growth, and casts doubts on the idea that the growth process might be largely exogenous.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701704410

Affiliations: IMF, Research, Washington, 20341 US

Publication date: 2010-02-01

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