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Modelling the general public's inflation expectations using the Michigan survey data

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In this article we discuss a few models developed to explain the general public's inflation expectations formation and provide some relevant estimation results. Furthermore, we suggest a simple Bayesian learning model which could explain the expectations formation process on the individual level. When the model is aggregated to the population level it could explain not only the mean values, but also the variance of the public's inflation expectations. The estimation results of the mean and variance equations seem to be consistent with the results of the questionnaire studies in which the respondents were asked to report their thoughts and opinions about inflation.

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: 1: Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Philosophy, 33014, University of Tampere, Finland 2: School of Business and Economics, University of Jyvaskyla, Finland

Publication date: 2009-04-01

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