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Trend stationary of inflation rates: evidence from LM unit root testing with a long span of historical data

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Abstract:

The article applies the LM univariate unit root test recently developed by Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) to re-examine the validity of trend stationary in the inflation rates of 11 OECD and Asian countries using a longer span of historical data. Our empirical findings are favourable to the trend stationary of the inflation rates when we control the structural breaks in series, and therefore they point to the absence of hyperinflation in the majority of the countries. The results indicate that shocks to inflation rates are temporary and soon converge, with the inflation rates being trend stationary. Hence, most structural breaks in the inflation rate occur around the Great Depression, World War I, World War II, and energy shock periods. For the convergence effect, we repeat the unit root tests utilized above for smaller sub-samples so as to provide a robust analysis. The outcomes show that by selecting a longer data span, we can catch more powerful convergent evidence. Overall, some policy implications are obtained in this article.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840600970138

Affiliations: 1: Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan 2: Department of Business Administration, Shih Chien University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Publication date: October 1, 2008

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