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A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts

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Abstract:

Inflation forecast uncertainty is of importance for a wide range of agents in the economy, central banks in particular. Ways to describe and account for this uncertainty in a consistent manner have received increasing attention of late, in part due to the growing number of inflation-targeting central banks. This article develops a large structural VAR for the Swedish economy and estimates it in a Bayesian framework. The methodology permits not only structural interpretation and analysis but offers a natural way to formalize forecast uncertainty, as the posterior predictive density from the model has the interpretation of a fan chart.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600843947

Affiliations: Department of Economics, Uppsala University and Sveriges Riksbank, Sweden

Publication date: 2008-06-01

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