Structural factors associated with primary fiscal balances in developing countries

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Abstract:

The study explores the conditions under which a government in a developing country is likely to run a balanced or surplus budget. We contend that primary fiscal deficits are likely to persist where the economy is too saving constrained to raise private sector investment. To conduct the investigation, a logit model is applied to a sample of developing countries to see whether the saving constraints are associated with the fiscal stance of governments. Accordingly, income level, growth, external current account balance and foreign direct investment are used as indicators of the saving constraint. With the exception of economic growth, positive developments in these variables turned out to be significant to the likelihood of the government adopting a surplus budget.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840500447716

Affiliations: 1: Caribbean Centre for Monetary Studies, The University of the West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago 2: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines,

Publication date: June 1, 2007

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