Exchange rates, and fundamental variables: a semi-parametric analysis of binary choice
Source: Applied Economics, Volume 37, Number 16, 10 September 2005 , pp. 1915-1924(10)
Abstract:This study is motivated by the dearth of models that provide good out-of-sample fit for exchange rates. That is, current models of exchange rate behaviour are poor predictors of subsequent currency movements. An attempt is made to determine if the relationship between exchange rates and fundamental variables can help explain the more extreme exchange rate movements (distributional switches). Models are developed that relate fundamental economic variables to the resulting estimates based on the mixture of normal probability distributions. Parametric estimation procedures (Logit and Probit) are compared with a semi-parametric technique, maximum score estimation (MSCORE), which is relatively untested in the field of finance. The fundamental variables of these models include information on trade balances, money supply changes, interest rate changes, real economic growth, relative inflation rates and changes in stock market indexes. Classification results favour MSCORE. Implications of results and improvements in methodology are discussed.
Document Type: Research Article
Affiliations: 1: Berry College, Campbell School of Business, Department of Accounting and Finance, 2277 Martha Berry Hwy NW, Mt Berry, GA 30149, USA 2: Oklahoma State University, College of Business Administration, Department of Finance, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA 3: Georgia Southern University, College of Business, Department of Finance and Quantitative Analysis, Statesboro, GA 30460, USA
Publication date: 10 September 2005