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A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

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We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area.
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Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: 1: Economics and Strategy Group, Aston Business School, Birmingham B4 7ET, UK 2: Department of Information Management & Systems, The Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham NG1 4BU, UK 3: Department of Accounting and Finance, Birmingham Business School, The University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK

Publication date: 2005-06-20

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