A time series model of fertility and female labour supply in the UK
Abstract:Multiple time series procedures suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to UK data on age-specific fertility rates, age-specific female labour force participation rates, and women's and men's wages. Cointegration tests establish the existence of two long-run equilibrium relations, identified as a fertility relation and a labour supply equation, for each age group. Maximum likelihood estimates of these equations are consistent with the new home economics model of fertility, and tests of Granger-causality show evidence of extensive feedback among the variables.
Document Type: Research Article
Affiliations: Institute of Behavioral Science Campus Box 256 University of Colorado Boulder Colorado 80309 USA
Publication date: 2005-03-01