A time series model of fertility and female labour supply in the UK

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Multiple time series procedures suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to UK data on age-specific fertility rates, age-specific female labour force participation rates, and women's and men's wages. Cointegration tests establish the existence of two long-run equilibrium relations, identified as a fertility relation and a labour supply equation, for each age group. Maximum likelihood estimates of these equations are consistent with the new home economics model of fertility, and tests of Granger-causality show evidence of extensive feedback among the variables.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000307021

Affiliations: Institute of Behavioral Science Campus Box 256 University of Colorado Boulder Colorado 80309 USA

Publication date: March 1, 2005

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