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A stable demand for money despite financial crisis: the case of Venezuela

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Abstract:

The demand for broad money in Venezuela is investigated over a period of financial crisis and substantial exchange rate fluctuations. The analysis shows that there exist a long-run relationship between real money, real income, inflation, the exchange rate and an interest rate differential, that remains stable over major policy changes and large shocks. The long-run properties emphasize that both inflation and exchange rate depreciations have negative effects on real money demand, whereas a higher interest rate differential has positive effects. The long-run relationship is finally embedded in a dynamic equilibrium correction model with constant parameters. These results have implications for a policy-maker. In particular, they emphasize that with a high degree of currency substitution in Venezuela, monetary aggregates will be very sensitive to changes in the economic environment.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840412331315015

Affiliations: Department of Economics University of Oslo Postbox 1095 Blindern N-0317 Oslo Norway, Email: h.c.bjornland@econ.uio.no

Publication date: March 1, 2005

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