Will a special tax on tobacco reduce lung cancer mortality? Evidence for EU countries
This article carrys out a quantitative evaluation of the effects on the health of smokers of increasing a special tobacco tax, using the mortality rate from lung cancer as an indicator. To that end, it estimates two models that relate tobacco consumption, the mortality rate and this special tax, employing data drawn from a sample made-up of 12 EU countries and covering the years 1983-1993. The results show that increasing the special tax is a useful tool for reducing lung cancer mortality. Specifically, it finds that a 10% increase will reduce the lung cancer mortality rate by 1.21% in the first year, with such a reduction implying the avoidance of 1707 deaths in the sample countries.