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Stylized facts on nominal term structure and business cycles: an empirical VAR study

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This paper examines the importance of various macroeconomic shocks in explaining the movement of the term structure of nominal bond yields in the post-war USA, as well as the channels through which such macro-shocks influence the yield curve, using a structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The results show that the monetary-policy and the aggregate-supply shocks are important determinants of the nominal term structure. Moreover, the monetary-policy innovations have a large but transitory effect on the nominal bond yields, primarily by changing the slope of the yield curve, and the aggregate-supply shocks from private sector have a more persistent effect on the level of the yield curve, but have little effect on the slope of the yield curve.
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Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: Economic Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 101 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94105 E-mail: tao.wu@sf.frb.org

Publication date: 2003-05-01

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