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Confidence and the real economy - the Japanese case

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This paper empirically analyses whether consumer confidence has an effect on the real economy in Japan. This paper uses vector autoregressions including variables which represent consumer confidence. It is shown that in the cases of quarterly and monthly data, consumer confidence has a significant effect on GDP fluctuations, whereas in the case of semiannual data, it has no effect. In other words, consumer confidence has an effect on only short-term economic fluctuations.
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Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University, 10-5 Oharano Kamisato Momiji-cho, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto, 610-1124, Japan. E-mail: autaka@mbox. kyoto-inet.or.jp

Publication date: 2003-01-01

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