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Forecast output coincidence and biproportion: two criteria to determine the orientation of an economy. Comparison for France (1980–1997)

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Abstract:

The method of forecast output coincidence used to determine if sectors are demandsided or supply-sided in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply side models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-sided (but one cannot decide that it is demand-sided anyway), and conversely.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840210128771

Publication date: 2002-11-10

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