Evidence on the cross-country transmission of monetary shocks
The international transmission of monetary shocks between the US and Canada is explored. Focusing on real variables such as consumption, investment, employment, and the bilateral trade balance, along with measures of US and Canadian money, the empirical analysis examines the impact of a monetary shock in one country on real activity in both countries. The long-run analysis provides evidence of cointegration among the variables and suggests that money plays an important role in the equilibrium relationships between the two countries. Variance decompositions and impulse response functions reveal interesting avenues of real transmission in the short run. The short-run analysis provides strong evidence that US monetary shocks affect real activity in both the USA and Canada. The analysis also indicates that Canadian monetary disturbances affect Canadian and US real activity, and that many of these effects are similar in magnitude to the effects of US monetary shocks. The importance of the nominal exchange-rate regime is also discussed.