Currency crises in Brazil: the role of the fundamentals and the rumours
The paper aims at identification of the main explanatory factors of the currency crises in Brazil. Following Choueiri and Kaminsky (1997) a VAR monetary model is used and the historical decomposition procedure developed by Sims (1980) to evaluate the importance of the 'fundamentals' represented by fiscal/monetary and exchange-rate policies, and the 'external factors' represented by foreign interest rates and contagious effects. The main results show the importance of the exchange-rate management on the overall period and the contagious effects more recently to explain the Brazilian currency crises.
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