Skip to main content

The econometrics of rational partisan theory

Buy Article:

$53.17 plus tax (Refund Policy)


This study develops an econometric intervention model representing the standard empirical approach to testing Alesina's (1987) Rational Partisan Theory implication that elections lead to short-term changes in output growth and unemployment. This intervention approach may be subject to two econometric difficulties. First, the cyclical nature of the autoregressive variables suggest the regression residuals may be serially correlated. Second, the election intervention variable may be endogenous to the cyclical variables. Empirical support for the model is mixed. Ordinary Least Squares estimates for both series produce a coefficient for the intervention variable which is of the predicted sign but not significant. The output growth regression results are robust to serial correlation and endogeneity concerns. For unemployment, controlling for serial correlation generates a significant coefficient, but adjusting for endogeneity does not.

Document Type: Research Article


Publication date: February 1, 2001

More about this publication?

Access Key

Free Content
Free content
New Content
New content
Open Access Content
Open access content
Subscribed Content
Subscribed content
Free Trial Content
Free trial content
Cookie Policy
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more