Demand for football and intramatch winning probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports
Authors: Falter, Jean-Marc; Perignon, Christophe
Source: Applied Economics, Volume 32, Number 13, 10 October 2000 , pp. 1757-1765(9)
Abstract:The aims of this study are (i) to identify the main determinants of the demand for French Premiere Division football matches using all matches played during the 1997/1998 season, (ii) to estimate a team-specific probability of success, and (iii) to propose an updating process for the intramatch winning probability. The methodology is tested empirically over an out-of-sample data set using matches of the 1998/1999 season. The results show that football appears to be an inferior product affected by both socio-economic and football variables, and that the main football variables have only a tenuous explanatory power concerning the final outcome of a given match.
Document Type: Research Article
Publication date: 2000-10-10