Cycles and steps in British commercial property values
Authors: Scott P.; Judge G.
Source: Applied Economics, Volume 32, Number 10, 15 August 2000 , pp. 1287-1297(11)
Abstract:This paper examines cyclical behaviour in commercial property values over the period 1956 to 1996, using a structural times series (unobserved components) approach. The influence of the transition to short rent reviews during the late 1960s and the short and long-term impacts of the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are also incorporated into the analysis, via dummy variables. It is found that once these variables are taken into account a fairly regular cyclical pattern can be discerned, with a period of about 7.8 years. Furthermore, the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are shown to have had a major long-term impact on property value growth (presumably via their influence on investors' expectations).
Document Type: Research article
Publication date: 2000-08-15