@article {Layton:1997:0003-6846:861,
	author = "Layton A. P.",
	title = "A new approach to dating and predicting Australian business cycle phase changes",
	journal = "Applied Economics",
	volume = "29",
	number = "7",
	year = "1997",
	abstract = "Due to well-known lags, counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies often exacerbate, rather than ameliorate, business cycles. Early recognition of upcoming phase shifts, particularly contractions, may assist in fine-tuning such policies. This objective is pursued in the paper by applying Hamilton's (1989, 1990, 1991) quasi-Bayesian, Markovian, regime-switching model to monthly growth rates of leading, long-leading and coincident indexes of Australian economic activity. A simple rule applied to regime probabilities for each data point of the coincident index produces a phase chronology that is very similar to that produced by the Bry and Boschan (1971) turning point algorithm. The regime switching model is also applied to the leading and long-leading indexes. The application of a simple rule to the resultant regime probabilities is found to result in a potentially very reliable advance signalling system for Australian business cycle phase changes.",
	pages = "861-868",
	url = "http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/routledg/raef/1997/00000029/00000007/art00003"
}