Devaluations and depreciation expectations in the EMS
This paper proposes a method to estimate separately the size of the expected depreciation in an eventual devaluation of the central parity in the ERM, and the probability assigned by agents to this devaluation occurring in the short run. The proposed method complements the information provided by the jumps observed in market exchange rates around realignments with the information contained in interest rate differentials on the future behaviour of exchange rates. The separation of probability and size allows a richer analysis of the effects of devaluations on exchange rate credibility in the ERM.
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