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Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries? Results for the G-7 countries

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The hypothesis is examined that the severity of a recession favourably affects the rate of growth of output during the period immediately after the recession. Our empirical analysis is based on the behaviour of industrial output in the G-7 countries during the period 1960 to 1985. The depth of a recession, defined as the cumulative output loss between the peak and trough dates, is shown to be negatively correlated with growth in the first 12 months of the subsequent expansion.

Document Type: Research Article


Publication date: 1996-07-01

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