An econometric model of Kuwait's non-oil GDP
A model covering the production part of the non-oil GDP in Kuwait is specified and estimated for the period 1972-93. The estimated model has passed the test of validation quite well. Therefore, the model has been used to experiment with a number of possible scenarios to depict a future path of all the endogenous variables of the model. The postulated scenarios are adopted from the various policy options of Kuwait's Ministry of Planning. The results have indicated that a quick reform policy will cause a substantial decline in non-oil production and consumption. A better policy option would be to choose a policy between minor and gradual reform.