Developmental changes in probabilistic reasoning: The role of cognitive capacity, instructions, thinking styles, and relevant knowledge
In three experiments we explored developmental changes in probabilistic reasoning, taking into account the effects of cognitive capacity, thinking styles, and instructions. Normative responding increased with grade levels and cognitive capacity in all experiments, and it showed a negative
relationship with superstitious thinking. The effect of instructions (in Experiments 2 and 3) was moderated by level of education and cognitive capacity. Specifically, only higher-grade students with higher cognitive capacity benefited from instructions to reason on the basis of logic. The
implications of these findings for research on the development of probabilistic reasoning are also discussed.
Keywords: Cognitive development; Dual-process theories; Heuristics and biases; Instruction manipulation; Probabilistic reasoning
Document Type: Research Article
Affiliations: 1: Department of Psychology, University of Florence, Florence, Italy 2: School of Psychology, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK
Publication date: 01 August 2011
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