Momentum Under a Gradual Approach to Zero Growth

Authors: Schoen R.; Kim Y.J.

Source: Population Studies, Volume 52, Number 3, November 1998 , pp. 295-299(5)

Publisher: Routledge, part of the Taylor & Francis Group

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Abstract:

A population's growth potential is significantly underestimated by conventional calculations of population momentum which assume an immediate drop to replacement level fertility. Here we assume that the growth rate of births linearly declines to zero over a specified time interval, and find simple and intuitively meaningful expressions for the size of the ultimate birth cohort and the resultant population momentum. In particular, we find that the increase in the number of births over the transition is equal to growth at the initial rate for half the time needed to attain a constant birth level. Thus our formula readily calculates the growth potential of a population under a gradual approach to stationarity without the need for a numerical projection. Calculations for actual and hypothetical populations are presented to show the demographic impact of such gradual approaches to zero growth.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000150476

Publication date: 1998-11-01

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