Reflections on Recent Levels and Trends of Fertility and Mortality in Egypt

The primary aim of the paper is to investigate whether the observed increase in the crude birth rate of Egypt between 1973 and 1979 which followed years of decline reflects a genuine fertility increase during this period. Specifically the question considered was, since other possible reasons behind the trends connected with the wars of 1967 and 1973 were not fully satisfactory, to what extent demographic factors could have influenced the trends in the crude birth rate during the 1960s and 1970s? A study of the impact of structural factors necessitated dealing with a longer period, with levels and trends in mortality as well as fertility, and with estimation of the age-sex structure.

The analysis shows that to a large extent the fall and rise in the crude birth rate can be explained by the effect on the age structure of past mortality trends, particularly of the rapid decline that took place during the late 1940s. These trends, even in the absence of any change in fertility, would cause the crude birth rate to decline to a low point during the early 1970s, increase and then decline again during the early 1980s. Fertility changes that seem to have taken place during the 1940s would further deepen the decline of the crude birth rate during the early 1970s and augment the increase during the late 1970s. The slight increase in age at marriage and in contraceptive practice have probably also contributed to the trend. Accordingly, the trend in the crude birth rate during the last two decades could have been anticipated on demographic grounds.