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Evaluating the predictive power of a procedural model for the European Union legislative process

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Abstract:

This article analyses the European Union legislative process with the help of formal models of decision-making. The predictions gained from a procedural model are compared with the power of a much simpler model that is informed by the median voter theorem. The finding of the analysis shows that the simpler model out-performs the more complex one. The article proceeds by deriving the hypothesis that the more salient an issue is for EU policy-makers, the higher the probability becomes that the procedural model out-performs the median model. The test results show that this hypothesis can be confirmed.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1357233042000246891

Affiliations: Department of International Relations, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 716, 9700 AS, Groningen, The Netherlands

Publication date: October 1, 2003

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