PREDICTING RE-OFFENDING: A 5-YEAR PROSPECTIVE STUDY OF ICELANDIC PRISON INMATES

Authors: Peersen, Marius¹; Fridrik Sigurdsson, Jon¹; Gudjonsson, Gisli H.²; Gretarsson, Sigurdur J.³

Source: Psychology, Crime and Law, Volume 10, Number 2, June 2004 , pp. 197-204(8)

Publisher: Routledge, part of the Taylor & Francis Group

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Abstract:

The study investigates differences in psychological, offending history, and substance use variables between desisters and recidivists among 461 Icelandic prison inmates, who were followed up 5 years after their release from prison. Almost half (48%) of the sample were re-convicted during the 5-year period and had received one or more prison sentences. Recidivists scored significantly lower than desisters on the Gough Socialization Scale, and desisters scored significantly higher on Self-Deception and Other-Deception Questionnaires. Recidivists had more extensive offending history, and had reported more substance use than desisters. A discriminant function analysis was performed in order to investigate which variables discriminated best between desisters and recidivists. The results indicate that offending history variables and low other-deception, discriminated best between the two groups. The results emphasize the importance of previous criminal history and antisocial personality traits as risk factors and impression management or social desirability as a protective factor.

Keywords: Prison Inmates; Recidivism; Antisocial Personality Traits; Substance Use; Impression Management

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10683160310001614789

Affiliations: 1: The Prison and Probation Administration Borgartuni 7 IS-105 Reykjavik 2: Department of Psychology Institute of Psychiatry De Crespigny Park Denmark Hill London SE5 8AF 3: University of Iceland Sudurgata IS-101 Reykjavik

Publication date: 2004-06-01